宏觀專題2019年國內宏觀經(jīng)濟研判及資產(chǎn)配置建議

1、目錄1.1.2019年：經(jīng)濟將下臺階，政策將保持寬松.......................................52.2.明年CPI中樞上移，PPI下降..........................................................62.1.明年對美加征關稅引起的通脹上行壓力不大...........................62.2.豬周期再起，推漲食品類價格........

2、...............................82.3.明年PPI下滑將傳導至CPI非食品項，原油支撐效應或減弱............112.4.預計2019年CPI呈倒U形態(tài)，中樞上移.............................123.3.投資緩降，消費或弱勢穩(wěn)定，出口將顯著下降.................................143.1.景氣與外需回落，利潤惡化，成本上升，制造業(yè)投資將

3、小幅回落........153.2.資金緊張，拿地積極性或下降，廣義庫存回升，地產(chǎn)投資預計回落......183.3.基數(shù)降低，政府債務可控，預計明年基建投資將回升..................203.4.減個稅效應緩慢發(fā)酵，預計消費明年弱勢穩(wěn)定........................243.5.進出口預計均將下滑，凈出口對經(jīng)濟貢獻下降........................254.4.下一步政策紅利：開放、創(chuàng)新、

4、改革............................................264.1.企業(yè)減負刻不容緩，減稅降費在路上................................264.2.做自己的事，改革、開放、創(chuàng)新是唯一最佳策略......................285.5.大類資產(chǎn)配臵建議.........................................................

5、..............305.1.權益持有價值上升，利率低位運行..................................305.2.黃金明年預計有正回報............................................315.3.謹慎看待工業(yè)品表現(xiàn)，關注豬周期..................................32圖1：中國對美國進口加征關稅清單..................

6、............................................................7圖2：大豆進口占比.......................................................................................................8圖3：大豆進口占國內消費比例................................

7、.....................................................8圖4：歷次豬周期劃分...................................................................................................9圖5：能繁母豬價格與豬肉價格呈反向關系.....................................

8、.............................10圖6：母豬生豬存欄比與豬肉價格呈反向關系..............................................................10圖7：母豬與仔豬飼料產(chǎn)量負增長................................................................................11圖8：豬肉價格預

9、測圖..................................................................................................11圖9：核心CPI及CPI各分項走勢...............................................................................11圖10：CPI非食品各項走勢......

10、...................................................................................11圖11：PPI同比與CPI非食品項同比...........................................................................12圖12：油價漲幅與CPI非食品項同比.....................

11、.....................................................12圖13：庫欣地區(qū)商業(yè)原油庫存走勢..............................................................................12圖14：歐元區(qū)PMI指數(shù)與GDP季調環(huán)比.................................................

12、...................12圖15：CPI同比走勢預測：布油55美元桶情景..........................................................13圖61：房地產(chǎn)投資與商品價格指數(shù)..............................................................................32圖62：基建投資與商品價格指數(shù).....

13、.............................................................................32圖63：豬肉價格與二元能繁母豬價格...........................................................................33圖64：豬肉價格與母豬生豬存欄比...............................

14、...............................................33表1：明年主要宏觀經(jīng)濟指標預測..................................................................................6表2：基建投資完成額預測結果...........................................................

15、.........................21表3：基建投資自籌資金測算結果(單位：億元).....................................................................22表4：新舊個稅累進稅率表........................................................................................

16、...24表5：個稅節(jié)省表.........................................................................................................24表6：今年自貿協(xié)定談判新進展....................................................................................29